Serie B · Regular Season - 32
America Mineiro0–1Fortaleza EC
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie B
- Venue
- Arena Independência
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC: match review and analysis
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC in Serie B on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
America Mineiro recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 19. Fortaleza EC recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses, with 12 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | America Mineiro | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 0 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
America Mineiro: (0.58 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.66 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Fortaleza EC: (1.29 weighted goals scored + 1.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.48 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
America Mineiro recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico GoianienseSerie B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| JuventudeSerie B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Vila NovaSerie B | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| São BernardoSerie B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Nautico RecifeSerie B | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CRBSerie B | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Ponte PretaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Sport RecifeSerie B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| NovorizontinoSerie B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from America Mineiro’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Fortaleza EC recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico RecifeSerie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| LondrinaSerie B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CearaSerie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AvaiSerie B | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GoiasSerie B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Operario-PRSerie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CriciumaSerie B | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| São BernardoSerie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| JuventudeSerie B | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Fortaleza EC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Fortaleza EC are ranked 3 in Serie B, with 56 points from 32 games.
America Mineiro are ranked 19 in Serie B, with 17 points from 32 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 58 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 56 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 54 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 42 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 39 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.