Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12
Alebrijes de OaxacavsCorrecaminos Uat
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga de Expansión MX
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat: match review and analysis
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat in Liga de Expansión MX on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Correcaminos Uat recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 16 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Correcaminos Uat |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca: (0.76 weighted goals scored + 1.59 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Correcaminos Uat: (1.42 weighted goals scored + 2.01 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.72 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Alebrijes de Oaxaca’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Correcaminos Uat recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Correcaminos Uat’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga de Expansión MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Correcaminos Uat are ranked 9 in Primera A: Apertura, with 16 points from 11 games.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca are ranked 14 in Primera A: Apertura, with 10 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Monarcas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | CA La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancún | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos Uat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | CDS Tampico Madero | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.