Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 14
ErlbachvsTuS Geretsried
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Oberliga - Bayern Süd
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried: match review and analysis
Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Erlbach recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 5. TuS Geretsried recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 10 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Erlbach | TuS Geretsried |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Erlbach: (1.16 weighted goals scored + 1.66 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
TuS Geretsried: (0.82 weighted goals scored + 0.44 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Erlbach recent form
1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeimstettenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PipinsriedOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| 1860 München IIOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| KotternOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| 1860 RosenheimOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| IsmaningOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Sportfreunde SchwaigOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| KirchanschöringOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GundelfingenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| 1880 WasserburgOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Erlbach’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
TuS Geretsried recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KirchanschöringOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GundelfingenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| 1880 WasserburgOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| DeisenhofenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| LandshutOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Hankofen-HailingOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PfaffenhofenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Schalding-HeiningOberliga - Bayern Süd | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| SchwabmünchenOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sportfreunde SchwaigOberliga - Bayern Süd | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from TuS Geretsried’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Oberliga - Bayern Süd — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.