Liga MX · Apertura - 11
Tigres UANL3–2Toluca
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga MX
- Venue
- Estadio Universitario
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–2
- 90-minute score
- 3–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: match review and analysis
Tigres UANL vs Toluca in Liga MX on 10 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Tigres UANL recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Toluca recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 24 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tigres UANL | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 24 |
| Goals conceded | 7 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tigres UANL: (0.74 weighted goals scored + 1.42 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.08 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Toluca: (2.21 weighted goals scored + 0.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tigres UANL recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PueblaLiga MX | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FC JuarezLiga MX | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MonterreyLiga MX | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NecaxaLiga MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Santos LagunaLiga MX | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Atlante FCLiga MX | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| AtlasLiga MX | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Vancouver WhitecapsLeagues Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Minnesota United FCLeagues Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Real Salt LakeLeagues Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Tigres UANL’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Toluca recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonterreyFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Cruz AzulLiga MX | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Santos LagunaLiga MX | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| PueblaLiga MX | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AtlasLiga MX | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| MonterreyLeagues Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| LeonLeagues Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| FC JuarezLiga MX | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| AustinLeagues Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Club QueretaroLiga MX | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Toluca’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Toluca are ranked 1 in Liga MX: Apertura, with 20 points from 10 games.
Tigres UANL are ranked 15 in Liga MX: Apertura, with 10 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.