Liga 3 · Regular Season - 6
LeçavsAD Marco 09
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga 3
- Venue
- Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Leça vs AD Marco 09: match review and analysis
Leça vs AD Marco 09 in Liga 3 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Leça recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 13. AD Marco 09 recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 11 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Leça | AD Marco 09 |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Leça: (1.16 weighted goals scored + 0.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.91 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AD Marco 09: (0.99 weighted goals scored + 1.27 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Leça recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MortáguaTaça de Portugal | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| TrofenseLiga 3 | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| FafeLiga 3 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ParedesLiga 3 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Guimaraes BLiga 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| São João VerLiga 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Lusitânia LourosaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Vitória de SernacheCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BragançaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Leça’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AD Marco 09 recent form
1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia LidadorTaça de Portugal | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Guimaraes BLiga 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| São João VerLiga 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| RéguaTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| VianenseLiga 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| VarzimLiga 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Pacos FerreiraLiga 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CinfãesFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ParedesLiga 3 | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from AD Marco 09’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
AD Marco 09 are ranked 2 in Liga 3, with 10 points from 5 games.
Leça are ranked 6 in Liga 3, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.