Virsliga · Regular Season - 32
TukumsvsRiga
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Virsliga
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tukums vs Riga: match review and analysis
Tukums vs Riga in Virsliga on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Tukums recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Riga recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 17 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tukums | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tukums: (0.90 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.03 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Riga: (1.68 weighted goals scored + 1.78 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.73 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tukums recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrobiņaVirsliga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Super NovaVirsliga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Ogre UnitedVirsliga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| FS JelgavaVirsliga | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| AudaVirsliga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FK LiepajaVirsliga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Rīgas FSVirsliga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| RigaVirsliga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Super NovaCup | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tukums’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Riga recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArisFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| FS JelgavaVirsliga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Super NovaVirsliga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AudaVirsliga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Rīgas FSCup | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| FK LiepajaVirsliga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| KI KlaksvikUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Rīgas FSVirsliga | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| KI KlaksvikUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Riga’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Virsliga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Riga are ranked 2 in Virsliga, with 73 points from 31 games.
Tukums are ranked 9 in Virsliga, with 24 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 30 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 30 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.