Premier League · Regular Season - 28
FK Tobol KostanayvsFC Astana
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Centralnyj Stadion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana: match review and analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana in Premier League on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
FK Tobol Kostanay recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 15. FC Astana recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 21 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 7 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 21 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
FK Tobol Kostanay: (1.55 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
FC Astana: (1.87 weighted goals scored + 1.50 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.68 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
FK Tobol Kostanay recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay SemeyPremier League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Kairat AlmatyPremier League | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| UlytauPremier League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| KaspiyPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| KaisarPremier League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| IrtyshPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FK PartizanUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FK PartizanUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| OrdabasyPremier League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| PanevėžysUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from FK Tobol Kostanay’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
FC Astana recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat AlmatyPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| OrdabasyPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Yelimay SemeyPremier League | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| AtyrauPremier League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Kyzyl-ZharPremier League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| OkzhetpesPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| UlytauPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| AltayPremier League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Dinamo TiranaUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| AktobePremier League | Home | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from FC Astana’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
FC Astana are ranked 3 in Premier League, with 45 points from 24 games.
FK Tobol Kostanay are ranked 7 in Premier League, with 34 points from 26 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 18 | 30 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 25 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 38 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 29 |
| 11 | Irtysh | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 12 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 22 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.