III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 12
Kotwica KórnikvsNoteć Czarnków
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- III Liga - Group 2
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Kotwica Kórnik vs Noteć Czarnków: match review and analysis
Kotwica Kórnik vs Noteć Czarnków in III Liga - Group 2 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Kotwica Kórnik recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 26. Noteć Czarnków recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Kotwica Kórnik | Noteć Czarnków |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 26 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Kotwica Kórnik: (1.73 weighted goals scored + 1.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Noteć Czarnków: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 2.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.09 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Kotwica Kórnik recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unia SwarzędzIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| Grom Nowy StawIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Gedania GdanskIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 1–6 | Lost | |
| Lipno StęszewIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Stargard SzczecińskiIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Chemik BydgoszczIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Victoria WrześniaIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Bałtyk KoszalinIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| KaliszIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Flota ŚwinoujścieIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Kotwica Kórnik’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Noteć Czarnków recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flota ŚwinoujścieIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| LuzinoIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Polonia ŚrodaIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Lech Poznań IIIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kluczevia StargardIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Wda ŚwiecieIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Elana ToruńIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| KaliszIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Unia SwarzędzIII Liga - Group 2 | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Grom Nowy StawIII Liga - Group 2 | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Noteć Czarnków’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
III Liga - Group 2 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Noteć Czarnków are ranked 7 in Group II, with 16 points from 11 games.
Kotwica Kórnik are ranked 16 in Group II, with 10 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 30 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wda Świecie | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Flota Świnoujście | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 14 |
| 11 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | Grom Nowy Staw | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Elana Toruń | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gedania Gdansk | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 10 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.