National Soccer League · Regular Season - 4
BugeseravsEtincelles
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National Soccer League
- Venue
- Bugesera Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Bugesera vs Etincelles: match review and analysis
Bugesera vs Etincelles in National Soccer League on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Bugesera recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Etincelles recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 14 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Bugesera | Etincelles |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Bugesera: (0.87 weighted goals scored + 0.86 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Etincelles: (1.57 weighted goals scored + 1.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.56 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Bugesera recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyovu SportsNational Soccer League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| RutsiroNational Soccer League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Rayon SportsNational Soccer League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MukuraNational Soccer League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GicumbiNational Soccer League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MarinesNational Soccer League | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| MuhangaNational Soccer League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Al MerreikhNational Soccer League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PoliceNational Soccer League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| EtincellesNational Soccer League | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Bugesera’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Etincelles recent form
1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MusanzeNational Soccer League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GorillaNational Soccer League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| SunriseNational Soccer League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al Hilal OmdurmanNational Soccer League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| GorillaNational Soccer League | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| MarinesNational Soccer League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Gasogi UnitedNational Soccer League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Al MerreikhNational Soccer League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| AmagajuNational Soccer League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Kiyovu SportsNational Soccer League | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Etincelles’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National Soccer League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Etincelles are ranked 2 in Regular Season, with 7 points from 3 games.
Bugesera are ranked 17 in Regular Season, with 0 points from 1 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Marines | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunrise | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.