I Liga · Regular Season - 10
Arka GdyniavsPolonia Warszawa
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- I Liga
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: match review and analysis
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa in I Liga on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Arka Gdynia recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Polonia Warszawa recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Arka Gdynia | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Arka Gdynia: (1.79 weighted goals scored + 1.22 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Polonia Warszawa: (1.66 weighted goals scored + 1.37 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Arka Gdynia recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK GoteborgFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Pogoń SiedlceI Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Warta PoznańI Liga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ŁKS ŁódźI Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Resovia RzeszówCup | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Polonia BytomI Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Miedz LegnicaI Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Unia SkierniewiceI Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Stal RzeszówI Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Arka Gdynia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Polonia Warszawa recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Chrobry GłogówI Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Polonia BytomI Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Stal RzeszówI Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Górnik PolkowiceCup | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Lechia GdanskI Liga | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| NiecieczaI Liga | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Pogoń SiedlceI Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Ruch ChorzówI Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Unia SkierniewiceI Liga | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Polonia Warszawa’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
I Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Polonia Warszawa are ranked 6 in I Liga, with 14 points from 9 games.
Arka Gdynia are ranked 12 in I Liga, with 11 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 8 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.