FAW Championship · North - 11
Gresford AthleticvsPorthmadog
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
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Match information
- Competition
- FAW Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog: match review and analysis
Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog in FAW Championship on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Gresford Athletic recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 25. Porthmadog recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 17 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Gresford Athletic | Porthmadog |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Gresford Athletic: (0.89 weighted goals scored + 1.01 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.95 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Porthmadog: (1.67 weighted goals scored + 2.39 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.03 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Gresford Athletic recent form
0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PenrhyncochFAW Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| RhylFAW Championship | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| GuilsfieldFAW Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Mold AlexandraFAW Championship | Home | 1–5 | Lost | |
| LlanuwchllynFAW Championship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Bala TownFAW Championship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Brickfield RangersFAW Championship | Home | 0–5 | Lost | |
| CaerswsFAW Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Newtown AFCFAW Championship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| GuilsfieldFAW Championship | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Gresford Athletic’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Porthmadog recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor City 1876 FCFAW Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Newtown AFCFAW Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Ruthin TownFAW Championship | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Bala TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Holyhead HotspurFAW Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CaerswsFAW Championship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Denbigh TownFAW Championship | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Buckley TownFAW Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RhylFAW Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| PenrhyncochFAW Championship | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Porthmadog’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FAW Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
Porthmadog are ranked 3 in North, with 20 points from 10 games.
Gresford Athletic are ranked 15 in North, with 7 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Caersws | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.