FAW Championship · South - 11
Llantwit MajorvsPontardawe Town
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FAW Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Real Scored match analysis
Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town: match review and analysis
Llantwit Major vs Pontardawe Town in FAW Championship on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Llantwit Major recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 25. Pontardawe Town recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses, with 16 scored and 22 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Llantwit Major | Pontardawe Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 22 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Llantwit Major: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 2.21 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Pontardawe Town: (1.60 weighted goals scored + 2.26 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.93 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Llantwit Major recent form
1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd TownFAW Championship | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Carmarthen TownFAW Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| llanelli AFCFAW Championship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Aberystwyth TownFAW Championship | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Baglan DragonsFAW Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Cambrian & ClydachFAW Championship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Aberystwyth TownFAW Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Llantwit Major’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Pontardawe Town recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trethomas BluebirdsFAW Championship | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Home | 6–1 | Won | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Aberystwyth TownFAW Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Newport CityFAW Championship | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Pontypridd TownFAW Championship | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Caerphilly AthleticFAW Championship | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Cardiff METFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Baglan DragonsFAW Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Pontardawe Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FAW Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Pontardawe Town are ranked 12 in South, with 9 points from 8 games.
Llantwit Major are ranked 15 in South, with 7 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Caersws | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.