Premier League · Regular Season - 6
ChelseavsBournemouth
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: match review and analysis
Chelsea vs Bournemouth in Premier League on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Chelsea recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 27 and conceding 19. Bournemouth recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 25 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 27 | 25 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Chelsea: (2.75 weighted goals scored + 1.40 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.08 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bournemouth: (2.06 weighted goals scored + 2.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.03 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Chelsea recent form
2.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BrentfordPremier League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Hull CityPremier League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| LeedsLeague Cup | Home | 6–3 | Won | |
| ArsenalPremier League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BrightonPremier League | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| LutonLeague Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| FulhamPremier League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Johor Darul Takzim FCFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| AC MilanFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Chelsea’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Bournemouth recent form
2.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiverpoolPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Real SociedadUEFA Europa League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BrentfordPremier League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| LincolnLeague Cup | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| NewcastlePremier League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| EvertonPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Manchester CityPremier League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FSV Mainz 05Friendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Real BetisFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GenoaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 10–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Bournemouth’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Chelsea are ranked 10 in Premier League, with 7 points from 5 games.
Bournemouth are ranked 17 in Premier League, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.