Championship · Regular Season - 9
DerbyvsWrexham
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- Pride Park Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Derby vs Wrexham: match review and analysis
Derby vs Wrexham in Championship on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Derby recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 17. Wrexham recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 9 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Derby | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Derby: (0.83 weighted goals scored + 1.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Wrexham: (0.94 weighted goals scored + 1.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Derby recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BurnleyChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BirminghamChampionship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| West BromChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| West HamChampionship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PortsmouthChampionship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| SwanseaChampionship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CardiffChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CharltonChampionship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LincolnLeague Cup | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| RotherhamFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Derby’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Wrexham recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SouthamptonChampionship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| West HamChampionship | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| BurnleyChampionship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SwanseaChampionship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MillwallChampionship | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| BirminghamChampionship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| WatfordChampionship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CardiffChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MiddlesbroughLeague Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| SunderlandPremier League - Summer Series | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Wrexham’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Wrexham are ranked 14 in Championship, with 10 points from 8 games.
Derby are ranked 22 in Championship, with 5 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.