League Two · Regular Season - 10
Newport CountyvsColchester
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- League Two
- Venue
- Rodney Parade
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Newport County vs Colchester: match review and analysis
Newport County vs Colchester in League Two on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Newport County recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Colchester recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 12 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Newport County | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Newport County: (1.35 weighted goals scored + 1.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.57 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Colchester: (1.19 weighted goals scored + 1.24 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.22 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Newport County recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlymouthEFL Trophy | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| GillinghamLeague Two | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| GrimsbyLeague Two | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Swindon TownEFL Trophy | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Accrington STLeague Two | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fleetwood TownLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NorthamptonLeague Two | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Salford CityLeague Two | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TranmereLeague Two | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Bristol RoversLeague Two | Away | 3–5 | Lost |
Scores shown from Newport County’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Colchester recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LutonEFL Trophy | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ShrewsburyLeague Two | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PeterboroughEFL Trophy | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CheltenhamLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CreweLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Swindon TownLeague Two | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Bristol RoversLeague Two | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| RochdaleLeague Two | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| OldhamLeague Two | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Accrington STLeague Two | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Colchester’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
League Two — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Newport County are ranked 15 in League Two, with 10 points from 9 games.
Colchester are ranked 19 in League Two, with 10 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.