League Two · Regular Season - 10
YorkvsNorthampton
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- League Two
- Venue
- York`s LNER Community Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
York vs Northampton: match review and analysis
York vs Northampton in League Two on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
York recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Northampton recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 4 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | York | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 4 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
York: (1.88 weighted goals scored + 1.31 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Northampton: (0.46 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
York recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GillinghamLeague Two | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| RotherhamEFL Trophy | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ChesterfieldLeague Two | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Newcastle United U21EFL Trophy | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Swindon TownLeague Two | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| CreweLeague Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CheltenhamLeague Two | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Exeter CityLeague Two | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| RotherhamLeague Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Bristol RoversLeague Two | Home | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from York’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Northampton recent form
0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| RotherhamLeague Two | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ShrewsburyLeague Two | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Newport CountyLeague Two | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Crawley TownLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GillinghamLeague Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CreweLeague Two | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Brighton U21EFL Trophy | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Swindon TownLeague Two | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LeicesterLeague Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Northampton’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
League Two — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
York are ranked 6 in League Two, with 14 points from 8 games.
Northampton are ranked 22 in League Two, with 6 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.