National League - North · National League North - 11
ChorleyvsAFC Telford United
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League - North
- Venue
- Victory Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Chorley vs AFC Telford United: match review and analysis
Chorley vs AFC Telford United in National League - North on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Chorley recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 14. AFC Telford United recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 10 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Chorley | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Chorley: (2.13 weighted goals scored + 2.10 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.12 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AFC Telford United: (1.01 weighted goals scored + 1.40 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.21 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Chorley recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton Town Old BoysFA Cup | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Spalding UnitedNational League - North | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| RylandsFA Cup | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| King's Lynn TownNational League - North | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Darlington 1883National League - North | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| Oxford CityNational League - North | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Brackley TownNational League - North | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Merthyr TownNational League - North | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Scarborough AthleticNational League - North | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| MarineNational League - North | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Chorley’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AFC Telford United recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Lynn TownNational League - North | Home | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Worksop TownFA Cup | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Worksop TownFA Cup | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Harborough TownNational League - North | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Oxford CityNational League - North | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Scarborough AthleticNational League - North | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Bedford TownNational League - North | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MorecambeNational League - North | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Hednesford TownNational League - North | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Merthyr TownNational League - North | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from AFC Telford United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League - North — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Chorley are ranked 12 in National League N/S: North, with 14 points from 10 games.
AFC Telford United are ranked 21 in National League N/S: North, with 9 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop Town | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.