National League - North · National League North - 11
Darlington 1883vsMerthyr Town
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League - North
- Venue
- Blackwell Meadows
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town: match review and analysis
Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town in National League - North on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Darlington 1883 recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 22. Merthyr Town recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 10 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Darlington 1883 | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 22 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Darlington 1883: (1.14 weighted goals scored + 1.18 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.16 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Merthyr Town: (0.82 weighted goals scored + 2.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.46 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Darlington 1883 recent form
1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MorecambeFA Cup | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Hebburn TownNational League - North | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Redcar TownFA Cup | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| MarineNational League - North | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ChorleyNational League - North | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| King's Lynn TownNational League - North | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| RadcliffeNational League - North | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| MacclesfieldNational League - North | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Harborough TownNational League - North | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| ChesterNational League - North | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Darlington 1883’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Merthyr Town recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarineNational League - North | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Truro CityFA Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Truro CityFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Scarborough AthleticNational League - North | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ChesterNational League - North | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| MacclesfieldNational League - North | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BuxtonNational League - North | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ChorleyNational League - North | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| South ShieldsNational League - North | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC Telford UnitedNational League - North | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Merthyr Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League - North — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Merthyr Town are ranked 13 in National League N/S: North, with 13 points from 10 games.
Darlington 1883 are ranked 22 in National League N/S: North, with 7 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop Town | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.