Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 13
AFC EmleyvsGainsborough Trinity
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
AFC Emley vs Gainsborough Trinity: match review and analysis
AFC Emley vs Gainsborough Trinity in Non League Premier - Northern on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
AFC Emley recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 27. Gainsborough Trinity recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 23 scored and 19 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | AFC Emley | Gainsborough Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 27 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
AFC Emley: (0.51 weighted goals scored + 1.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Gainsborough Trinity: (2.76 weighted goals scored + 3.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
AFC Emley recent form
0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BootleFA Trophy | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Spennymoor TownFA Cup | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| BuryNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Bishop AucklandFA Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Bishop AucklandFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Guiseley AFCNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Warrington TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from AFC Emley’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Gainsborough Trinity recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 6–2 | Won | |
| Anstey NomadsFA Cup | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BuryFA Trophy | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| LeamingtonFA Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| LeamingtonFA Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AvroNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Sherwood CollieryFA Cup | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Cleethorpes TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ashton UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| QuornNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Gainsborough Trinity’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Gainsborough Trinity are ranked 11 in Regular Season, with 16 points from 10 games.
AFC Emley are ranked 19 in Regular Season, with 10 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.