Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 11
Basingstoke TownvsMalvern Town
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Southern South
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Basingstoke Town vs Malvern Town: match review and analysis
Basingstoke Town vs Malvern Town in Non League Premier - Southern South on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Basingstoke Town recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Malvern Town recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 11 scored and 24 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Basingstoke Town | Malvern Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 24 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Basingstoke Town: (0.96 weighted goals scored + 2.47 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.71 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Malvern Town: (1.10 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Basingstoke Town recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UxbridgeNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Poole TownFA Trophy | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Gosport BoroughNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Gloucester CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC StonehamFA Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AFC StonehamFA Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Bracknell TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Taunton TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| Bath CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Poole TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Basingstoke Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Malvern Town recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bath CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Mickleover SportsFA Trophy | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Gloucester CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| Chertsey TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Redditch UnitedFA Cup | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Redditch UnitedFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chippenham TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Gosport BoroughNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Wimborne TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Bracknell TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Malvern Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Southern South — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Basingstoke Town are ranked 17 in Regular Season, with 9 points from 9 games.
Malvern Town are ranked 22 in Regular Season, with 5 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 21 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Bath City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Chertsey Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Taunton Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Chichester City | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Evesham United | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Berkhamsted | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Wimborne Town | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Gosport Borough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Yate Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Bracknell Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Sholing | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Basingstoke Town | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.