La Liga · Regular Season - 8
AlavesvsAtletico Madrid
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- La Liga
- Venue
- Estadio de Mendizorroza
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: match review and analysis
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid in La Liga on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Alaves recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Atletico Madrid recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 20 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Alaves | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 7 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Alaves: (1.60 weighted goals scored + 1.26 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.43 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Atletico Madrid: (2.03 weighted goals scored + 0.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Alaves recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic ClubLa Liga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ValenciaLa Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Racing SantanderLa Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| OsasunaLa Liga | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| VillarrealLa Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Rayo VallecanoLa Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GetafeLa Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CastellónFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| GironaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Alaves’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Atletico Madrid recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real MadridLa Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| OsasunaLa Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Real SociedadLa Liga | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| LiverpoolUEFA Champions League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Athletic ClubLa Liga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SevillaLa Liga | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| VillarrealLa Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MalagaLa Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| MarseilleFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Manchester CityFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Atletico Madrid’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
La Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Atletico Madrid are ranked 2 in La Liga, with 16 points from 7 games.
Alaves are ranked 6 in La Liga, with 11 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.