Veikkausliiga · Relegation Group - 26
MariehamnvsIlves
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Veikkausliiga
- Venue
- Wiklöf Holding Arena
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Mariehamn vs Ilves: match review and analysis
Mariehamn vs Ilves in Veikkausliiga on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Mariehamn recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Ilves recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mariehamn | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mariehamn: (1.29 weighted goals scored + 0.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ilves: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mariehamn recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJKVeikkausliiga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Turku PSVeikkausliiga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LahtiVeikkausliiga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FF JaroVeikkausliiga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| KuPSVeikkausliiga | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| SJKVeikkausliiga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| IlvesVeikkausliiga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Turku PSVeikkausliiga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| AC OuluVeikkausliiga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LahtiVeikkausliiga | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Mariehamn’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ilves recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HakaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Turku PSVeikkausliiga | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| LahtiVeikkausliiga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| FF JaroVeikkausliiga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| VPSVeikkausliiga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GnistanVeikkausliiga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MariehamnVeikkausliiga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ilves’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Veikkausliiga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ilves are ranked 9 in Veikkausliiga, with 25 points from 22 games.
Mariehamn are ranked 12 in Veikkausliiga, with 14 points from 22 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | KuPS | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 48 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 37 |
| 6 | VPS | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 36 |
Ilves are ranked 2 in Relegration Group, with 34 points from 25 games.
Mariehamn are ranked 5 in Relegration Group, with 17 points from 25 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lahti | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 36 |
| 2 | Ilves | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 34 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 5 | Mariehamn | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 17 |
| 6 | FF Jaro | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 48 | -28 | 17 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.