Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28
Toronto FCvsCF Montreal
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Major League Soccer
- Venue
- BMO Field
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Real Scored match analysis
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: match review and analysis
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Toronto FC recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 20. CF Montreal recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 12 scored and 20 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Toronto FC | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 20 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Toronto FC: (1.61 weighted goals scored + 1.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.76 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
CF Montreal: (1.12 weighted goals scored + 2.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Toronto FC recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SCMajor League Soccer | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Nashville SCMajor League Soccer | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Chicago FireMajor League Soccer | Home | 4–4 | Draw | |
| New York City FCMajor League Soccer | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CharlotteMajor League Soccer | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| New York City FCMajor League Soccer | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Toronto FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
CF Montreal recent form
1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CharlotteMajor League Soccer | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer | Away | 1–7 | Lost | |
| Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from CF Montreal’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Major League Soccer — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 |
Toronto FC are ranked 13 in Eastern Conference, with 29 points from 27 games.
CF Montreal are ranked 15 in Eastern Conference, with 24 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | 34 | 60 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 46 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 33 |
| 9 | New York City FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 33 |
| 11 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.