NB I · Regular Season - 9
PaksvsMTK Budapest
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- NB I
- Venue
- Fehérvári úti stadion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Paks vs MTK Budapest: match review and analysis
Paks vs MTK Budapest in NB I on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Paks recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 20. MTK Budapest recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 18 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Paks | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Paks: (1.93 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.69 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
MTK Budapest: (1.75 weighted goals scored + 1.85 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Paks recent form
2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvarda FCNB I | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| KazincbarcikaiMagyar Kupa | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Debreceni VSCNB I | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| NyiregyhazaNB I | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| UjpestNB I | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Puskas AcademyNB I | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Budapest HonvedNB I | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Zalaegerszegi TENB I | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Ferencvarosi TCNB I | Home | 4–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Paks’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
MTK Budapest recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyori ETO FCNB I | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Mezokovesd-zsoryMagyar Kupa | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Kisvarda FCNB I | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Debreceni VSCNB I | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| NyiregyhazaNB I | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| UjpestNB I | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Puskas AcademyNB I | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Budapest HonvedNB I | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Zalaegerszegi TENB I | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| KomárnoFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from MTK Budapest’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
NB I — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Paks are ranked 6 in NB I, with 11 points from 8 games.
MTK Budapest are ranked 7 in NB I, with 9 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.