Mineiro - 3 · Regular Season - 4
Nova LavrasvsSantarritense
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 3 previous home-team games and 3 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Mineiro - 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Nova Lavras vs Santarritense: match review and analysis
Nova Lavras vs Santarritense in Mineiro - 3 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Nova Lavras recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in the 3 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Santarritense recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1 scored and 18 conceded across 3 games.
| Statistic | Nova Lavras | Santarritense |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 1 |
| Goals conceded | 4 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Nova Lavras: (1.85 weighted goals scored + 5.90 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 3.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Santarritense: (0.41 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.78 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 3 GAMES
Nova Lavras recent form
1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 of 3 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional AC MGMineiro - 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Novo Esporte ClubeMineiro - 3 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Venda NovaMineiro - 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Nova Lavras’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 3 usable previous results were available.
LAST 3 GAMES
Santarritense recent form
0.33 goals scored and 6.00 conceded per game. 3 of 3 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter de MinasMineiro - 3 | Away | 1–7 | Lost | |
| Venda NovaMineiro - 3 | Home | 0–8 | Lost | |
| Nacional AC MGMineiro - 3 | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Santarritense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 3 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Mineiro - 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Nova Lavras are ranked 5 in Mineiro 3, with 3 points from 3 games.
Santarritense are ranked 6 in Mineiro 3, with 0 points from 3 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venda Nova | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 10 |
| 1 | Paracatu | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Nacional AC MG | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Betim 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Novo Esporte Clube | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Sao Joao del Rei | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Inter de Minas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Funorte | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 3 |
| 5 | Nova Lavras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Araxá | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Santarritense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 |
| 6 | Siderurgica | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.