Carioca - 2 · Regular Season - 6
CarapebusvsNiteroiense
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Carioca - 2
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Carapebus vs Niteroiense: match review and analysis
Carapebus vs Niteroiense in Carioca - 2 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Carapebus recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 16. Niteroiense recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, with 16 scored and 6 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Carapebus | Niteroiense |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 6 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Carapebus: (0.72 weighted goals scored + 0.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Niteroiense: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 1.76 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Carapebus recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacaéCarioca - 2 | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| São Cristóvão RJCarioca - 2 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ArtsulCarioca - 2 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Duque de CaxiasCarioca - 2 | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Campo GrandeCarioca - 2 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Duque de CaxiasCarioca - 2 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BonsucessoCarioca - 2 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Campo GrandeCarioca - 2 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ArtsulCarioca - 2 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Serrano RJCarioca - 2 | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Carapebus’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Niteroiense recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Cristóvão RJCarioca - 2 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Duque de CaxiasCarioca - 2 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Nova CidadeCarioca - 2 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| PetrópolisCarioca - 2 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Serrano RJCarioca - 2 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| PaduanoCarioca - 2 | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| Duque de CaxiasCarioca - 2 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FriburguenseCarioca - 2 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Campo GrandeCarioca - 2 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BonsucessoCarioca - 2 | Home | 2–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Niteroiense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Carioca - 2 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Niteroiense are ranked 1 in Carioca 2, with 13 points from 5 games.
Carapebus are ranked 11 in Carioca 2, with 1 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Petrópolis | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Goytacaz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Artsul | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Campo Grande | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Serrano RJ | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 11 | Carapebus | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Audax Rio | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.