Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12
Venados FCvsLeones Negros UDG
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga de Expansión MX
- Venue
- Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: match review and analysis
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG in Liga de Expansión MX on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Venados FC recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 21. Leones Negros UDG recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 23 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Venados FC | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Venados FC: (2.50 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.98 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Leones Negros UDG: (2.31 weighted goals scored + 1.80 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Venados FC recent form
2.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Venados FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Leones Negros UDG recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 6–3 | Won | |
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Leones Negros UDG’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga de Expansión MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Leones Negros UDG are ranked 2 in Primera A: Apertura, with 23 points from 11 games.
Venados FC are ranked 4 in Primera A: Apertura, with 19 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancún | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos Uat | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.