Primera División · Clausura - 11
UniversitariovsFBC Melgar
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División
- Venue
- Estadio Monumental U Marathon
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Universitario vs FBC Melgar: match review and analysis
Universitario vs FBC Melgar in Primera División on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Universitario recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 16. FBC Melgar recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 16 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Universitario | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Universitario: (1.91 weighted goals scored + 0.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.32 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
FBC Melgar: (1.46 weighted goals scored + 1.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.56 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Universitario recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Alianza LimaPrimera División | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| UTC CajamarcaPrimera División | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| FC CajamarcaPrimera División | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Sporting CristalPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CiencianoPrimera División | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CuscoPrimera División | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ADTPrimera División | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Universitario’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
FBC Melgar recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport BoysPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CuscoPrimera División | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ADTPrimera División | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Atletico GrauPrimera División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Alianza LimaPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| FC CajamarcaPrimera División | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| UCV MoqueguaPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sporting CristalPrimera División | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CiencianoPrimera División | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from FBC Melgar’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Universitario are ranked 2 in Primera Division: Tabla Anual, with 49 points from 27 games.
FBC Melgar are ranked 4 in Primera Division: Tabla Anual, with 46 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 43 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 38 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 27 |
| 16 | ADT | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 15 |
Universitario are ranked 4 in Primera Division: Apertura, with 29 points from 17 games.
FBC Melgar are ranked 5 in Primera Division: Apertura, with 28 points from 17 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 16 |
Universitario are ranked 2 in Primera Division: Clausura, with 20 points from 10 games.
FBC Melgar are ranked 7 in Primera Division: Clausura, with 18 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Universitario | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 20 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II College | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 18 |
| 9 | Cusco | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Alianza Lima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Cajamarca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 9 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | ADT | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.