USL Championship · Group Stage
El Paso LocomotivevsOrange County SC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- Southwest University Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC: match review and analysis
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC in USL Championship on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
El Paso Locomotive recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Orange County SC recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 9 scored and 23 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 23 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
El Paso Locomotive: (1.89 weighted goals scored + 2.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Orange County SC: (0.79 weighted goals scored + 0.97 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
El Paso Locomotive recent form
1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Phoenix RisingUSL Championship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Louisville CityUSL Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Loudoun UnitedUSL Championship | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Colorado SpringsUSL Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Monterey BayUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from El Paso Locomotive’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Orange County SC recent form
0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey BayUSL Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Louisville CityUSL Championship | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Tampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| El Paso LocomotiveUSL Championship | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Orange County SC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
El Paso Locomotive are ranked 1 in USL Championship, with 47 points from 27 games.
Orange County SC are ranked 7 in USL Championship, with 39 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.