Liga Nacional · Apertura - 9
Lobos UpnfmvsCD Marathon
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga Nacional
- Venue
- Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon: match review and analysis
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon in Liga Nacional on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Lobos Upnfm recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 14. CD Marathon recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 18 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Lobos Upnfm | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Lobos Upnfm: (1.02 weighted goals scored + 1.48 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
CD Marathon: (1.80 weighted goals scored + 1.23 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Lobos Upnfm recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platense FCLiga Nacional | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Atlético CholomaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real EspanaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| JuticalpaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CD MotaguaLiga Nacional | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Estrella RojaLiga Nacional | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| OlanchoLiga Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CD MotaguaLiga Nacional | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| JuticalpaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Lobos Upnfm’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
CD Marathon recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuticalpaLiga Nacional | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| LD AlajuelenseCONCACAF Central American Cup | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LD AlajuelenseCONCACAF Central American Cup | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Estrella RojaLiga Nacional | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| GénesisLiga Nacional | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Real EstelíCONCACAF Central American Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Real EspanaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlianzaCONCACAF Central American Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Atlético CholomaLiga Nacional | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from CD Marathon’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga Nacional — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
CD Marathon are ranked 3 in Apertura, with 17 points from 8 games.
Lobos Upnfm are ranked 9 in Apertura, with 8 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Génesis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Olancho | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.