USL Championship · Group Stage
Phoenix RisingvsLas Vegas Lights
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- Wild Horse Pass Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights: match review and analysis
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights in USL Championship on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Phoenix Rising recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Las Vegas Lights recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 10 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Phoenix Rising | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Phoenix Rising: (1.33 weighted goals scored + 1.21 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Las Vegas Lights: (1.15 weighted goals scored + 1.74 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Phoenix Rising recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| El Paso LocomotiveUSL Championship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Monterey BayUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Indy ElevenUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Colorado SpringsUSL Championship | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Phoenix Rising’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Las Vegas Lights recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Orange County SCUSL Championship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Charleston BatteryUSL Championship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BrooklynUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Miami FCUSL Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Las Vegas Lights’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
Las Vegas Lights are ranked 9 in USL Championship, with 36 points from 27 games.
Phoenix Rising are ranked 11 in USL Championship, with 33 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.