Persha Liga · Regular Season - 11
UCSAvsYarud Mariupol'
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Persha Liga
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol': match review and analysis
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' in Persha Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
UCSA recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 18. Yarud Mariupol' recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 18 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
UCSA: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 0.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.00 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Yarud Mariupol': (1.75 weighted goals scored + 1.74 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.75 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
UCSA recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Viktoriya MykolaivkaPersha Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PrykarpattiaPersha Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ChernihivPersha Liga | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Metal KharkivPersha Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| InhuletsPersha Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kolos KovalivkaCup | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SK PoltavaPersha Liga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Nyva TernopilPersha Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| OleksandriaPersha Liga | Home | 4–4 | Draw |
Scores shown from UCSA’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Yarud Mariupol' recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyva TernopilPersha Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| OleksandriaPersha Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Polissya IIPersha Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Probiy HorodenkaPersha Liga | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Zorya LuhanskCup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| KulykivPersha Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Lokomotiv KyivPersha Liga | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Dinaz VyshhorodCup | Away | 6–0 | Won | |
| Kolos Kovalivka IIPersha Liga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| SK PoltavaPersha Liga | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Yarud Mariupol'’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Persha Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Yarud Mariupol' are ranked 7 in Persha Liga, with 15 points from 10 games.
UCSA are ranked 13 in Persha Liga, with 10 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Oleksandria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | UCSA | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.