I Liga · Regular Season - 10
Stal MielecvsWarta Poznań
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- I Liga
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: match review and analysis
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań in I Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Stal Mielec recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 25. Warta Poznań recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Stal Mielec: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.34 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Warta Poznań: (1.78 weighted goals scored + 2.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Stal Mielec recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia GdanskI Liga | Away | 1–7 | Lost | |
| NiecieczaI Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Odra OpoleI Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Górnik ŁęcznaCup | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Pogoń SiedlceI Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ŁKS ŁódźI Liga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Polonia BytomI Liga | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| Stal RzeszówI Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PodbeskidzieI Liga | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Unia SkierniewiceI Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Stal Mielec’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Warta Poznań recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry GłogówFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Arka GdyniaI Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Miedz LegnicaI Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Chrobry GłogówI Liga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Odra OpoleI Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| NiecieczaI Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Resovia RzeszówCup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Lechia GdanskI Liga | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Warta Poznań’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
I Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Warta Poznań are ranked 3 in I Liga, with 15 points from 9 games.
Stal Mielec are ranked 17 in I Liga, with 9 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 8 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.