Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6
PoblensevsCastellón II
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Poblense vs Castellón II: match review and analysis
Poblense vs Castellón II in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Poblense recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Castellón II recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 19 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Poblense | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Poblense: (0.74 weighted goals scored + 0.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.84 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Castellón II: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 0.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Poblense recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético BalearesSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Valencia IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AlcoyanoSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CastellonenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| La NucíaSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Atlético BalearesFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ÁguilasSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ÁguilasSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NumanciaSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NumanciaSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Poblense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Castellón II recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorca DeportivaSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| OrihuelaSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Valencia IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AlcoyanoSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| IntercitySegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ReddisFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| TeruelFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SD LogroñésSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| SD LogroñésSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Girona IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 4–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Castellón II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Castellón II are ranked 1 in Group 3, with 12 points from 5 games.
Poblense are ranked 16 in Group 3, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.