1. Liga · Regular Season - 22
SmiltenevsTukums II
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- 1. Liga
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Smiltene vs Tukums II: match review and analysis
Smiltene vs Tukums II in 1. Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Smiltene recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 26. Tukums II recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses, with 11 scored and 31 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Smiltene | Tukums II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 26 | 31 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Smiltene: (1.91 weighted goals scored + 3.36 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Tukums II: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 2.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Smiltene recent form
1.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova 21. Liga | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Riga Mariners1. Liga | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| JDFS Alberts1. Liga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Metta / LU1. Liga | Home | 0–6 | Lost | |
| Leevon / PPK1. Liga | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Valmiera / BSS1. Liga | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| JFK Ventspils1. Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Rīgas FS II1. Liga | Home | 3–5 | Lost | |
| Rēzekne FA1. Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Mārupe1. Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Smiltene’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Tukums II recent form
1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JFK Ventspils1. Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Rēzekne FA1. Liga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Mārupe1. Liga | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Leevon / PPK1. Liga | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Skanste1. Liga | Away | 2–6 | Lost | |
| Riga Mariners1. Liga | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| JDFS Alberts1. Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Metta / LU1. Liga | Away | 0–9 | Lost | |
| Rīgas FS II1. Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Riga FC II1. Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tukums II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
1. Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tukums II are ranked 10 in 1. Liga, with 18 points from 21 games.
Smiltene are ranked 11 in 1. Liga, with 16 points from 21 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 18 |
| 11 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.