Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27
Arsenal Tula IIvsOrel
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
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Match information
- Competition
- Second League - Group 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Real Scored match analysis
Arsenal Tula II vs Orel: match review and analysis
Arsenal Tula II vs Orel in Second League - Group 3 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Arsenal Tula II recorded 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Orel recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses, with 7 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Arsenal Tula II | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Arsenal Tula II: (0.49 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Orel: (0.78 weighted goals scored + 0.96 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Arsenal Tula II recent form
0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva IIISecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Metallurg LipetskSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Zenit PenzaSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Saturn RamenskoyeSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| StroginoSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SKA Khabarovsk IISecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ShumbratSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FK Spartak TambovSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Volna NizhegorodskayaSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Arsenal Tula II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Orel recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StroginoSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| SKA Khabarovsk IISecond League - Group 3 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| ShumbratSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FK Spartak TambovSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Volna NizhegorodskayaSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| RyazanSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Rotor-2Second League - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| KvantSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Salyut-BelgorodSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Orel’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Second League - Group 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Orel are ranked 13 in Central, with 23 points from 22 games.
Arsenal Tula II are ranked 15 in Central, with 14 points from 22 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 12 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 35 | 13 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 44 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.