Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6
MensajerovsSan Bartolomé
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Mensajero vs San Bartolomé: match review and analysis
Mensajero vs San Bartolomé in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Mensajero recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 5. San Bartolomé recorded 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, with 15 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mensajero | San Bartolomé |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mensajero: (1.03 weighted goals scored + 0.69 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
San Bartolomé: (1.41 weighted goals scored + 0.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.94 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mensajero recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villaverde NorteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| San MiguelTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AnazaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Tenerife CTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real MurciaCopa Federacion | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| UD San FernandoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ArucasTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Villa Santa BrígidaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Mensajero’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
San Bartolomé recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Santa BrígidaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LanzaroteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EstrellaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Unión Sur YaizaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Tenerife CTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| LanzaroteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| UD San FernandoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ArucasTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Villa Santa BrígidaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Unión Sur YaizaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from San Bartolomé’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Mensajero are ranked 4 in Group 12, with 9 points from 4 games.
San Bartolomé are ranked 6 in Group 12, with 8 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Miguel | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Mensajero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Las Palmas III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | San Bartolomé | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Marino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Panadería Pulido | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Los Llanos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Lanzarote | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Villa Santa Brígida | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Tenerife C | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Estrella | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Anaza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Laguna de Duero | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Villaverde Norte | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Playas Sotavento | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.