Serie D - Girone D · Group D - 7
PaviavsVaresina
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone D
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Pavia vs Varesina: match review and analysis
Pavia vs Varesina in Serie D - Girone D on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Pavia recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 18. Varesina recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 14 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Pavia | Varesina |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Pavia: (0.59 weighted goals scored + 1.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.11 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Varesina: (1.32 weighted goals scored + 1.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Pavia recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant'AngeloCoppa Italia Serie D | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CorreggeseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ArconateseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SolbiateseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CremaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AlbinoleffeFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| PisaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–6 | Lost | |
| BrenoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Pavia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Varesina recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro PatriaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| USD CasateseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| PistoieseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CorreggeseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Cittadella Vis ModenaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| CastellanzeseSerie D - Girone B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Caldiero TermeSerie D - Girone B | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BrenoSerie D - Girone B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Milan IISerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Varesina’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone D — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Pavia are ranked 10 in Serie D: Group D, with 7 points from 6 games.
Varesina are ranked 12 in Serie D: Group D, with 5 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 18 |
| 2 | Pro Sesto | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Pro Patria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Castellanzese | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | USD Casatese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Correggese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Pavia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Città di Varese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Varesina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Solbiatese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crema | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.