Liga 3 · Regular Season - 6
São João VervsVarzim
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
São João Ver vs Varzim: match review and analysis
São João Ver vs Varzim in Liga 3 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
São João Ver recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Varzim recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | São João Ver | Varzim |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
São João Ver: (0.63 weighted goals scored + 1.18 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.91 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Varzim: (1.68 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.29 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
São João Ver recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos FerreiraLiga 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AD Marco 09Liga 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FlorgradeTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TrofenseLiga 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FafeLiga 3 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| LeçaLiga 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TondelaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| União LamasFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| SC BragaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| SanjoanenseLiga 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from São João Ver’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Varzim recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de SernacheTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| VianenseLiga 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ParedesLiga 3 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TrofenseTaça de Portugal | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| Pacos FerreiraLiga 3 | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| AD Marco 09Liga 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| TrofenseLiga 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| TirsenseFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| TondelaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| União SantarémLiga 3 | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Varzim’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Varzim are ranked 3 in Liga 3, with 9 points from 5 games.
São João Ver are ranked 9 in Liga 3, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.