Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · Group B - 5
SousensevsEstrela Calheta
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 7 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Sousense vs Estrela Calheta: match review and analysis
Sousense vs Estrela Calheta in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Sousense recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Estrela Calheta recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 5 scored and 19 conceded across 7 games.
| Statistic | Sousense | Estrela Calheta |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 7 |
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sousense: (1.13 weighted goals scored + 2.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Estrela Calheta: (0.65 weighted goals scored + 1.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Sousense recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| União LamasCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| OvarenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SalgueirosTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Castro DaireCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CinfãesCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| União LamasFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| OleirosTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ParedesTaça de Portugal | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| ÁguedaTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Valadares GaiaTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sousense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 7 GAMES
Estrela Calheta recent form
0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. 6 of 7 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro DaireCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CinfãesCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| VianenseTaça de Portugal | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| OvarenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| MachicoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MaritimoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlpendoradaTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–7 | Lost |
Scores shown from Estrela Calheta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 7 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Estrela Calheta are ranked 12 in II Divisao: Group B, with 2 points from 4 games.
Sousense are ranked 14 in II Divisao: Group B, with 1 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Camacha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Florgrade | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Cinfães | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Sanjoanense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Beira-Mar | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Estrela Calheta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.