Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Group C - 5
MortáguavsBenfica Castelo Branco
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco: match review and analysis
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Mortágua recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Benfica Castelo Branco recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 13 scored and 19 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mortágua | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mortágua: (1.21 weighted goals scored + 1.96 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Benfica Castelo Branco: (1.36 weighted goals scored + 1.10 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mortágua recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeçaTaça de Portugal | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| UD da SerraCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FazendenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| SC CovilhaTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SertanenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| NazarenosCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| EléctricoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Vitória de SernacheCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Os MarialvasCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MarinhenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Mortágua’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Benfica Castelo Branco recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD NogueirenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| FC Alverca IICampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| FátimaTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Naval 1893Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Oliveira HospitalCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| FátimaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Samora CorreirCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| PenicheCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Vitória de SernacheCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Oliveira HospitalCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Benfica Castelo Branco’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Mortágua are ranked 1 in II Divisao: Group C, with 10 points from 4 games.
Benfica Castelo Branco are ranked 8 in II Divisao: Group C, with 6 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.