Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Group C - 5
Os MarialvasvsSertanense
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense: match review and analysis
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Os Marialvas recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 3. Sertanense recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses, with 7 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Os Marialvas | Sertanense |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 3 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Os Marialvas: (1.69 weighted goals scored + 1.48 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Sertanense: (0.58 weighted goals scored + 0.33 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.45 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Os Marialvas recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OvarenseTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| NazarenosCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| FátimaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| AD Fornos AlgodresTaça de Portugal | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Oliveira HospitalCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atlético MalveiraCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| União LamasFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LajenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Naval 1893Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MortáguaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Os Marialvas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Sertanense recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O ElvasCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Atlético MalveiraCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlcainsTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MortáguaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| AD NogueirenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Benfica Castelo BrancoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AlcainsCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Os MarialvasCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MortáguaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Arronches e BenficaCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sertanense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Os Marialvas are ranked 4 in II Divisao: Group C, with 9 points from 4 games.
Sertanense are ranked 12 in II Divisao: Group C, with 2 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.