First League · Regular Season - 11
Cherno More VarnavsLevski Sofia
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- Ticha Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia: match review and analysis
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia in First League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Cherno More Varna recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 21. Levski Sofia recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Cherno More Varna: (1.17 weighted goals scored + 1.16 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.16 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Levski Sofia: (1.30 weighted goals scored + 1.98 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Cherno More Varna recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LudogoretsFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Arda KardzhaliFirst League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Dunav RuseFirst League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| LudogoretsFirst League | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Cherno More Varna’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Levski Sofia recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Botev VratsaFirst League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CSKA SofiaSuper Cup | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Spartak VarnaFirst League | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Levski Sofia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Levski Sofia are ranked 1 in A PFG, with 25 points from 9 games.
Cherno More Varna are ranked 13 in A PFG, with 6 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.