Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7
PonferradinavsReal Avilés
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés: match review and analysis
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Ponferradina recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Real Avilés recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ponferradina | Real Avilés |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ponferradina: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 1.61 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Real Avilés: (1.70 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ponferradina recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MirandesPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| PontevedraPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo La Coruña IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LugoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| UD OurensePrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real Madrid IIFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Marino de LuancoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Real AvilésFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| OviedoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ponferradina’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Real Avilés recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LugoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| CD CoriaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Unionistas de SalamancaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Athletic Club IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| PontevedraPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sporting Gijón IIFriendlies Clubs | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| MosconiaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Racing FerrolFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Racing Santander IIFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Real Avilés’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ponferradina are ranked 5 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 11 points from 6 games.
Real Avilés are ranked 17 in Segunda B: Group 1, with 5 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logroñés | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Athletic Club II | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Unión | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cultural Leonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Extremadura 1924 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Mérida AD | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Avilés | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.