Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8
Rio AvevsNacional
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Venue
- Estádio dos Arcos
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Rio Ave vs Nacional: match review and analysis
Rio Ave vs Nacional in Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Rio Ave recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 18. Nacional recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 8 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Rio Ave | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Rio Ave: (1.23 weighted goals scored + 2.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.62 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Nacional: (0.72 weighted goals scored + 2.10 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Rio Ave recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlvercaPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EstrelaPrimeira Liga | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| EstorilPrimeira Liga | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FC PortoPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| GIL VicentePrimeira Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TondelaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Al-Ahli JeddahFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PortimonenseFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Rio Ave’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Nacional recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FamalicaoPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| AlvercaPrimeira Liga | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| EstrelaPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Vitória SCPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EstorilPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| EstrelaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LeganesFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TondelaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Nacional’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primeira Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Nacional are ranked 15 in Primeira Liga, with 4 points from 7 games.
Rio Ave are ranked 16 in Primeira Liga, with 4 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.