Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6
CenicerovsSan Marcial
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Cenicero vs San Marcial: match review and analysis
Cenicero vs San Marcial in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Cenicero recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 20. San Marcial recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 10 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Cenicero | San Marcial |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Cenicero: (0.83 weighted goals scored + 1.28 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
San Marcial: (0.90 weighted goals scored + 1.89 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.39 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Cenicero recent form
0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YagüeTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| River EbroTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BerceoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ComillasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VareaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| VareaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Haro DeportivoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| OyonesaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Rapid de MurilloTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Calahorra IITercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Cenicero’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
San Marcial recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| River EbroTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BerceoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ComillasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| VareaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VianésTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AnguianoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Haro DeportivoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AgoncilloTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| VillegasTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| CalahorraTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from San Marcial’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
San Marcial are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 16, with 6 points from 5 games.
Cenicero are ranked 11 in Tercera: Group 16, with 5 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Berceo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | La Calzada | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alfaro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Calahorra | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Agoncillo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Varea | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Yagüe | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cenicero | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Anguiano | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Oyonesa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Comillas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | River Ebro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casalarreina | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Vianés | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.