Azadegan League · Regular Season - 5
Novin AhvazvsNaft Masjed Soleyman
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 4 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Azadegan League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Novin Ahvaz vs Naft Masjed Soleyman: match review and analysis
Novin Ahvaz vs Naft Masjed Soleyman in Azadegan League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Novin Ahvaz recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 4 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Naft Masjed Soleyman recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 19 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Novin Ahvaz | Naft Masjed Soleyman |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Novin Ahvaz: (1.25 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Naft Masjed Soleyman: (1.72 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 4 GAMES
Novin Ahvaz recent form
1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 of 4 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft GachsaranAzadegan League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Shahin Bandar AmeriAzadegan League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Shenavarsazi QeshmAzadegan League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Niroye ZaminiAzadegan League | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Novin Ahvaz’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 4 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Naft Masjed Soleyman recent form
1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fard AlborzAzadegan League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Pars Jonoubi JAMAzadegan League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Naft Bandar AbbasAzadegan League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Be'sat KermanshahAzadegan League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Niroye ZaminiAzadegan League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Fajr SepasiAzadegan League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Naft Bandar AbbasAzadegan League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Shahrdari AstaraAzadegan League | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Mes SoongounAzadegan League | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Naft Masjed Soleyman’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Azadegan League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Naft Masjed Soleyman are ranked 5 in Regular Season, with 6 points from 4 games.
Novin Ahvaz are ranked 12 in Regular Season, with 3 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.