Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6
JaraízvsCabeza Buey
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Jaraíz vs Cabeza Buey: match review and analysis
Jaraíz vs Cabeza Buey in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Jaraíz recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Cabeza Buey recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Jaraíz | Cabeza Buey |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Jaraíz: (1.21 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Cabeza Buey: (1.40 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Jaraíz recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MontijoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| VillafrancaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LlerenenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MoraloTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Atlético PueblonuevoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BadajozTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BadajozTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cabeza BueyTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LlerenenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Jaraíz’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Cabeza Buey recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GuadianaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AzuagaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| JerezTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MontijoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Puebla CalzadaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| JaraízTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MontehermosoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| JerezTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Cabeza Buey’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Cabeza Buey are ranked 12 in Group 14, with 5 points from 5 games.
Jaraíz are ranked 14 in Group 14, with 4 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Castuera | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Puebla Calzada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Gévora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Montijo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Jerez | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Quintana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.