Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6
La NucíavsLorca Deportiva
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva: match review and analysis
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
La Nucía recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Lorca Deportiva recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 5 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | La Nucía | Lorca Deportiva |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 4 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
La Nucía: (1.50 weighted goals scored + 1.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.31 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Lorca Deportiva: (0.49 weighted goals scored + 0.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.56 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
La Nucía recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportiva MineraSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Mallorca IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| YeclanoSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real Murcia IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| PoblenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AlcoyanoFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Trival ValderasTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Trival ValderasTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Levante IITercera División RFEF - Group 6 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Levante IITercera División RFEF - Group 6 | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from La Nucía’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Lorca Deportiva recent form
0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CastellonenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| IntercitySegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| OrihuelaSegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Elche IISegunda División RFEF - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ÁguilasFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Deportiva MineraSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| YeclanoSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ÁguilasSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| XerezSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Lorca Deportiva’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
La Nucía are ranked 2 in Group 3, with 12 points from 5 games.
Lorca Deportiva are ranked 11 in Group 3, with 5 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.