Segunda División · Promotion Group - 3
U. San MartinvsBentín Tacna Heroica
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División
- Venue
- Villa Deportiva USMP
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
U. San Martin vs Bentín Tacna Heroica: match review and analysis
U. San Martin vs Bentín Tacna Heroica in Segunda División on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
U. San Martin recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 22. Bentín Tacna Heroica recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 16 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | U. San Martin | Bentín Tacna Heroica |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 22 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
U. San Martin: (1.63 weighted goals scored + 0.93 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bentín Tacna Heroica: (1.46 weighted goals scored + 1.97 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.71 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
U. San Martin recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza UniversidadSegunda División | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Carlos A. MannucciSegunda División | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| Academia CantolaoSegunda División | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Union ComercioSegunda División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Cesar VallejoSegunda División | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportiva AgropecuariaSegunda División | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo LlacuabambaSegunda División | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Carlos A. MannucciSegunda División | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Molinos El PirataSegunda División | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Academia CantolaoCopa De La Liga | Away | 3–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from U. San Martin’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Bentín Tacna Heroica recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos A. MannucciSegunda División | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Alianza UniversidadSegunda División | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Estudiantil CNISegunda División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SantosSegunda División | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Alianza UniversidadSegunda División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sport Huancayo 2Segunda División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ComerciantesSegunda División | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Ayacucho FCSegunda División | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo BinacionalSegunda División | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| MinasSegunda División | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Bentín Tacna Heroica’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
U. San Martin are ranked 5 in Segunda División, with 24 points from 16 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 |
Bentín Tacna Heroica are ranked 1 in Segunda División, with 29 points from 16 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 49 | -39 | 10 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.